An article that lays out a chronlongy of suicide bombings in Afghanistan is here. Would you agree that the pace of violence has increased in that country?
The "Surge" of U.S. troops seems to be working in Iraq, if standard sources are to be believed. The Clog Almanac warns that thinking that the war on terrorism is being won in that place may be a hasty judgement at best. Faced with sure defeat and destruction in Iraq, insurgent groups and individuals may in fact be doing what they have always done in those societies: melt away and regroup to fight another day, elsewhere. Iran must be walking a fine line since it's purported terrorist-support and nuclear development activities are under the international microscope. Perhaps the decline in violence in Iraq is related to Iran's decreased support of terrorism in that theater.
In the case of Iraq, insurgents who would otherwise be fighting and mounting suicide attacks may be looking for quieter venues in which to ply their deadly trade. They leave the battlefield, bombing and other incident stats go down, and the U.S. reports that the Surge is working. Maybe "it's working" because the enemy is quietly withdrawing. It doesn't take a genius to come up with a list of places where the U.S. and its allies are not concentrating their war, where terrorism and the advancement of enemy ideals might be less expected:
Some insurgent groups may be heading for Afghanistan, to join with the Taliban's push to gain influence. Others may be regrouping farther afield in places like Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, or certain African countries. Pakistan? Why not pile into that currently unstable country where tribalism and lawless border areas are the norm and where there are nuclear weapons within reach?
Calls for the beginning of the end of terrorism and international turmoil and violence are immature, in the Clog Almanac's opinion.
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